Week of wrong decisions!

Week of wrong decisions!

Shit week on the poker front with 3 games played. Having back problems and being in pain makes me like a reet miserable old moaning twat. Stupid things bugging me and its deffo down to being in this pain.

Tuesday game and good table including Stumpy n Omamaha ( new clean cut look)
Extra interest when me Stumpy n Omahaha have a side bet on the greyhounds featured on TV which Stumpy romps home with after only 2 races (fml)
Poker was going OK then allowed to limp in late with Ace rag to flop 2 pair. Pot size bet gets one customer and when he check raises all in on turn its looking like a set as I dont think this guys risking all his chips here the way he plays but like the donk way Im playing at the mo I eventually call and he flips 53 for the straight and I dont fill up. So annoyed with myself AGAIN for making a losing call and next hand I ship in to a raise holding AhKh but his QQ holds and early night for me

Friday night Grosvenor and never get going again especially after bluffing away my 1st stack. Lose a couple of races after break and very short eventually getting it in JJ v KQ snap and he flops the K.

After watching what was described as football ( West Brom v Toon) or what I would describe as 2 shite teams I take in the Saturday Freezeout at Grosvenor. Disappointing field to be honest but alot of newbies in the field. Good table apart from a drunk on my right who couldnt miss and after every hand repeated that he was drunk and sorry for his play. Fuck me mate we wernt that un observant. The lad is actually a very good player.
Very card dead and everytime I tried to play position the BB woke up with big hands so my stack was withered away. Lose most of stack after raising early position JJ for BB to ship and my call is faced with the mighty AA. 1200 chips left with an average of 9k isnt looking good and so tempted to ship Q9s next hand but refrain.
Eventually double up then double up then double up and with 13 left Im actually sitting very pretty and probably 3rd or 4th in chips with the big chip leader at end of my table.
Very helpful guy had called my JJ ship with 9h6h so when I pick up AA on his BB I make standard 3xBB raise being 100% sure he stays in but the sb chip leader joins and he folds.
Flop 3cKhQh and I bet pot after his check to which he calls. Another heart on the turn and its check check. Another rag 2 river and he checks to me which Im happy to check considering his stack size and how many left yet after thinking the hand through I decide to bet out 6k. "ALL IN" he says WTF you fkn donkey I think, why did I bet but after going through the hand again Im still convinced Im ahead as the river 2 surely hasnt helped him and I say I can only put you 222 or KQ that beats me and I make the call. Fuck my stupid donkey life call as he flips 7h5h and Im gone in a game I should of been cruising to final table in. So so annoyed at yet another game Ive played like a total dickhead in and must get my self back together again as I got no one to blame but myself at mo. Not even looking forward to games so its either give it a break for couple of weeks or try n play through it. cant even decide which will be better.

trying to stay positive laters TD.

indecent proposals

indecent proposals

alreet Stumpy here,

Only 1 live game last week at Stanleys £30 Tuesday game was on the same table as Teamdobb and Omahaha, well I think it was him as he looked very nice with his new haircut,I says 2 him why u get the ya haircut, Teamdobb says I bet ya mam told ya to get it cut he said YUP she did, who says yungins of 2day dont do as there told!
Scooped a tenner off Dobba nd Omahaha as the dogs were on the telly at Walthamstow and we had a 3 race bet and it was over in 2 races - EASY MONEY lol.
Onto the poker I was going along nicely till I raised a limper with AJ and got called off seat 5 and limper called flop is J107 I bet 2400 into 3500 pot seat 5 calls limper folds Q on turn he only has 3k left so I put him allin and he shows QQ whoops then I get AJ ss now so ship it and called off AQ Goodnite from me.
Mrs stumpy comes 5th her JJ no good v AA for £150.
Played dc at Grosvenor on Wednesday and had a good laff but lost £120. Its a good game with good group a lads . Then Thursday play Aspers and dont think I won a hand yuk.
Still running good in my sng grind started with 600 Jan 1st now upto $6480.Went to my nieces wedding had a good day at Saltburn, Rushpool Hall very nice place had nice food and a good drink. Was there from 130pm till late and when I was leaving sayin goodbye to my brothers mother in law I says " are u stoppin here 2nite?" she says "yes u can stop in my room if you want," I says "I dont think Mrs stumpy would be pleased" ,she says "Youve never lived till youve slept with me!" all this said in front of her granddaughters who were horrified!!!Hey Ive still got it with the ladies lol,
by the way shes 70!!!!

keep on smiling. stumpy

Being faithful!!

Being faithful!!

I was a very happy man. My wonderful girlfriend and I had been dating for over a year, and so we decided to get married. There was only one little thing bothering me ... It was her beautiful younger sister.

My prospective sister-in-law was twenty-two, wore very tight miniskirts, and generally was bra-less. She would regularly bend down when she was near me, and I always got more than a nice view. It had to be deliberate. Because she never did it when she was near anyone else.

One day her 'little' sister called and asked me to come over to check the wedding invitations. She was alone when I arrived, and she whispered to me that she had feelings and desires for me that she couldn't overcome.
She told me that she wanted me just once before I got married and committed my life to her sister.

Well, I was in total shock, and couldn't say a word.

She said, 'I'm going upstairs to my bedroom, and if you want one last wild fling, just come up and get me.'

I was stunned and frozen in shock as I watched her go up the stairs. I stood there for a moment, then turned and made a beeline straight to the front door. I opened the door, and headed straight towards my car.

Lo and behold, my entire future family was standing outside, all clapping!

With tears in his eyes, my father-in-law hugged me and said, 'We are very happy that you have passed our little test. We couldn't ask for a better man for our daughter. Welcome to the family.'

And the moral of this story is:










Always keep your condoms in your car.

How many winners?

How many winners?

A recent thread at the NPF featured discussion as to how many winning players there actually was. Think it was common assumption that figure was around the 5/10% mark so thought it was interesting this information provided by Juicey Oranges Peter Smithson as to actual facts and figures. May shock a few of you out there as it did me.

I've got no axe to grind here. Just curious. I remembered that I'd seen something on sharkscope and it linked to this:

What fraction of online poker players are winners?
Posted by theStatistician - Posted on June 28th, 2009
Tagged: fraction giocodigitale liesdamnliesandstatistics merge winning players One of the common - and more amusing - threads I see on many of the internet forums is discussions about what fraction of online tournament players are profitable. One of the most frequent guesses i see is 5%. Often someone will then post that SharkScope has in its FAQ that 1/3rd of usernames are winners. The person will who suggested 5% will then immediately claim our numbers must be wrong.

Why they think we would get this wrong I have no idea - but for psychological reasons players seem to want to believe the number of winners is small. The losers want to feel more justified in showing that they haven't won any money because its extremely hard to do so, and presumably the winning players want to feel that their accomplishment is even more special.

So what are the exact numbers? Based on our entire database 26% of players are winners. If you exclude rake, then the number is more like 33% of players are making money against other players.

The fraction is also surprisingly constant for the different tournament variants, for example if you filter for just heads up games, the percentage of profitable players is still exactly 26%.

The number varies somewhat by network, but not as much as you might think. For example take a look at the table below which is the fraction of winners for all players who have played at least 100 games:

Network % Profitable Players
Merge 44%
Cereus 39%
B2B 33%
Cake 32%
Party 32%
Ongame.it 31%
Everest 31%
Sky 31%
PKR 30%
PokerStars.it 29%
IPN 28%
SvenskaSpel 27%
PokerStars 27%
Pacific 27%
PokerClub 26%
Betfair 25%
Ongame 25%
FullTilt 25%
iPoker 24%
CryptoLogic 23%
Peoples 22%
iPoker.it

THESE FIGURES WERE FOR SNGS ONLY

Times are changing, starting to see the light!

Times are changing, starting to see the light!

Hi Bloggers.

Just thought I'd quickly update you all on my recent goings on.

Since the introduction to the blog I must say things are changing fast for me.

I've since went from Pet Taxi Driver to Call Centre worker. Just as funny but in a different kind of way.

When you're trying to sell BT to customers who don't want to come back it can be hard, if not totally demoralising at times.

I spoke to an old lady yesterday and asked if she was the decision maker in the household to which she replies "NO, MY HUSBAND DOES ALL THE COOKING" will give you a rough idea of what I'm talking about. The odd Pet Taxi tale will follow soon but I just haven't the time right now.

Anyway, on to Poker. As some of you will know I was playing full time in between jobs.

I've always mucked around on various sites in the past but always been a regular on UB.

I had the great pleasure of stating UB was a site I'd never been broke on since my first deposit in October 2003. That status has now changed. I went broke last week after withdrawals for various reasons as well as passing dollars to friends for cash and left myself short for the games I regularly wanted to play. End result: Brokeville!!!!

I've always had complaints and issues with UB but tolerated them because the site has always been profitable for me as well as building up a few long lasting on-line friendships. That has now changed, I won't be reloading or playing the site any more. I can still chat to aforementioned friends on MSN without the hassle of having to play the site anymore.

I spoke to a few NPF friends recently and they kept telling me to "reload" I'm a stubborn twat and refuse to do this, (my intention when I made that first deposit in 2003 of $44 was to quit if I ever went broke) this mindset kept me sensible with my roll and avoided the ole "play any level I want, go broke, then say "fuck it" I'll reload).

I played a few more live games recently and I'm starting to enjoy live poker more and don't see it as boring and too time consuming for what is a very poor return regarding hourly rate compared to on-line.

My outlook has changed now, It's not all about the money, I'm starting to have fun with it and actually find I'm starting to get back to my "A" game.

I played our once a month private tourney with friends last Saturday (£30 freeze) bubbled obviously but felt I played well considering I was smashed after about a dozen bottle of Magners.

Sat down at the cash game with the lads that had already been eliminated with £40 and ran it up to around £165. Good night, had fun and a few quid in my back pocket.

Sunday, travelled through to Aspers for the Will Hill freeroll. 123 runners. 20 payed. I managed to cash in 6th for £90. Played well throughout the day, although some of the players and plays were pretty awful. I picked my spots well and got my chips in ahead I'd say 95% of the time but cards dried up at the FT made a few plays and got re raised and/or shipped on and finished 6th.

I got home, assessed the situation and came to the conclusion that it was possibly because I relaxed and wasn't just playing for the money that I had actually played better than I have been.

Also, the cash for £90 wasn't paid cash in hand but gets payed into my newly opened Will Hill account so I can now play on-line again (albeit on a site I fucking hate) without reloading.

See you all at the tables soon, live as well as the virtual felt.

So, to sum up, I'm again employed, I have no financial pressures, I'm playing carefree, playing for the crack poker, relaxing and getting somewhere to my former self to boot.

Watch this space, the Cow's got his appetite back whilst having "FUN"

Hope to post up some nice results and fun tales soon.

I've seen the light.

PS: Thanks DC, sometimes a little chat goes a long way.

Cowhead72.

Intergrity and security of playing online. Is it really random?

Intergrity and security of playing online. Is it really random?

One post on the NPF yesterday prompted me search back for this thread I posted ages ago and thought I'd throw it up on here too for opinions.

You see this in every game on the internet: is this shit really random?

Two concepts are really face to face here.

a)The beats seem so frequent and obvious that the randomness of internet poker software is questioned.

b)Beats like those happen also live but we play so many more hands online that they seem to happen more frequently online.So, how can we come up with an answer to the question? Lets look at a few things before committing to one or the other:Regular players (lets say >10 hours per week) are so used to seeing humoungous bad beats that they can actually see them coming right when the flop or turn hits.

Here's an example: You have AA, someone shoves on you preflop with JT, you call and the flop is A-8-3...when the K hits the turn, everyone, including you is expecting the Q on the river. Another one? KK vs 77 allin preflop...flop is 5-6-8...everyone knows that KK is now doomed...for sure the str8 will hit.Now, is that to say that the software is not a real random generator and actually favors the underdog in a hand? Not quite ready to say yes.

Lets look at a bit of probability analysis. Lets take the crushing 2-outer bad beat where your big pair gets beat by a smaller pair hitting a set. Lets not take into account preflop bets. Either you both limped or a raise was called, basically, you're both waiting to see a flop. Or, another situation which will pretty much have the same result, you have AA or KK with a flop of obviously smaller cards like T-3-2 rainbow...most people will go all the way with it anyways.So, if the donk needs to hit a 2 outer on you after the flop (like if he has 99), you are a 92-8 favorite.

Which means if you both go allin at that point, he'll sukout on you once every 11.5 hands on average. But lets not forget one thing...if you both go allin preflop...he'll sukout on you once every five hands!!!

Now, lets consider that playing one table online will give you about 60hands per hour...2 tables=120h/h...3 tables 180h/h, etc.....you see that the old 2 outer can happen a lot of times!I don't think more than 25-30 hands per hour is realistic when you play live. So, if you're like me and play 3 tables at once on average, you will see 6 times more hands live....therefore 6 times more beats online than live! And you also have to consider the fact that people generally play like donks a lot more online. Whether its because they dont have to face a table or real people looking at them like an idiot or because people tend to think a lot less about the hands online, the fact is, people generally play worse online.

So put that all together and it's totally normal to think that awful beats happen so often online.

So, lets take my situation. On a normal week, lets say I play 20 hours....at 150 hands per hour. That's 3000 hands per week. That's a 100 to 120 hours of live play!!! So basically, at 3000 hands per week, you'll see 2 outers, 1 outers, runner runner, runner runner runner runner crap veryyyyy often.

So is that what clouds our judgment and lets us think that the software is not totally random? I think so.One more argument...its human nature (and a good line from the best poker movie of all time, Rounders) that you'll remember with incredible accuracy the outstanding beats of your career.

Do you remember how many hands you've won with AA? Don't think so....but you'll remember quite well if you busted out of a tourney when your AA got cracked by the donk who called your allin preflop with his 66 and hit his set.

Another thing is that most people feel compelled to play a big pot when they get AA. If you have JJ and you see over cards on the flop...it will slow you down. But obviously, with AA...there never are any over cards! And you think the pot is supposed to be yours no matter what. So many times have I seen people just shove their AA on any flop following a raise...not even thinking of what the other player might have. I've done it quite often in the past myself. I think I'm cured of that now. So, just to show you that people get burned by the way they play the hand also.So, all that to say that I actually believe the software to be random. Even if I'll often write in the chat that I saw the 1 outer come from a mile away.

Anyone agree with me?????????

Cowhead72.

Tuna and pineapple is the way forward!

Tuna and pineapple is the way forward!

Hi all just a quick update on the diet after losing 4lb in the 1st week i have lost another 8lb and now weigh 14st 9lb bloody great i was having shower before and i could have sworn i seen my toes

laters

jimmy chipmunk