Intergrity and security of playing online. Is it really random?
One post on the NPF yesterday prompted me search back for this thread I posted ages ago and thought I'd throw it up on here too for opinions.
You see this in every game on the internet: is this shit really random?
Two concepts are really face to face here.
a)The beats seem so frequent and obvious that the randomness of internet poker software is questioned.
b)Beats like those happen also live but we play so many more hands online that they seem to happen more frequently online.So, how can we come up with an answer to the question? Lets look at a few things before committing to one or the other:Regular players (lets say >10 hours per week) are so used to seeing humoungous bad beats that they can actually see them coming right when the flop or turn hits.
Here's an example: You have AA, someone shoves on you preflop with JT, you call and the flop is A-8-3...when the K hits the turn, everyone, including you is expecting the Q on the river. Another one? KK vs 77 allin preflop...flop is 5-6-8...everyone knows that KK is now doomed...for sure the str8 will hit.Now, is that to say that the software is not a real random generator and actually favors the underdog in a hand? Not quite ready to say yes.
Lets look at a bit of probability analysis. Lets take the crushing 2-outer bad beat where your big pair gets beat by a smaller pair hitting a set. Lets not take into account preflop bets. Either you both limped or a raise was called, basically, you're both waiting to see a flop. Or, another situation which will pretty much have the same result, you have AA or KK with a flop of obviously smaller cards like T-3-2 rainbow...most people will go all the way with it anyways.So, if the donk needs to hit a 2 outer on you after the flop (like if he has 99), you are a 92-8 favorite.
Which means if you both go allin at that point, he'll sukout on you once every 11.5 hands on average. But lets not forget one thing...if you both go allin preflop...he'll sukout on you once every five hands!!!
Now, lets consider that playing one table online will give you about 60hands per hour...2 tables=120h/h...3 tables 180h/h, etc.....you see that the old 2 outer can happen a lot of times!I don't think more than 25-30 hands per hour is realistic when you play live. So, if you're like me and play 3 tables at once on average, you will see 6 times more hands live....therefore 6 times more beats online than live! And you also have to consider the fact that people generally play like donks a lot more online. Whether its because they dont have to face a table or real people looking at them like an idiot or because people tend to think a lot less about the hands online, the fact is, people generally play worse online.
So put that all together and it's totally normal to think that awful beats happen so often online.
So, lets take my situation. On a normal week, lets say I play 20 hours....at 150 hands per hour. That's 3000 hands per week. That's a 100 to 120 hours of live play!!! So basically, at 3000 hands per week, you'll see 2 outers, 1 outers, runner runner, runner runner runner runner crap veryyyyy often.
So is that what clouds our judgment and lets us think that the software is not totally random? I think so.One more argument...its human nature (and a good line from the best poker movie of all time, Rounders) that you'll remember with incredible accuracy the outstanding beats of your career.
Do you remember how many hands you've won with AA? Don't think so....but you'll remember quite well if you busted out of a tourney when your AA got cracked by the donk who called your allin preflop with his 66 and hit his set.
Another thing is that most people feel compelled to play a big pot when they get AA. If you have JJ and you see over cards on the flop...it will slow you down. But obviously, with AA...there never are any over cards! And you think the pot is supposed to be yours no matter what. So many times have I seen people just shove their AA on any flop following a raise...not even thinking of what the other player might have. I've done it quite often in the past myself. I think I'm cured of that now. So, just to show you that people get burned by the way they play the hand also.So, all that to say that I actually believe the software to be random. Even if I'll often write in the chat that I saw the 1 outer come from a mile away.
Anyone agree with me?????????
Cowhead72.
13 comments:
Don,t be rediculous cowhead , its 100% rigged , the whole system is designed to give as many people as possible a fair chance to win/lose , however because there are a few skills that can be mastered we get winners and losers , but the simple fact is the software is pre determined and the hands developed as there played out.
anyway i know that was written by a software manufacturer
A friend and I looked into this our selves and ended up with this conclusion.
Question: Do you play online?
i have played well over 1 million hands online , proberbly closer to 2 million ,,
the problem with most people is they either
1, havn,t played enough to relize whats going on
2, play to many tables at 1 time and don,t watch the vast majority of hands being played out so over 1 million hands have proberbly only seen 100K if that play out.
the game is computer generated and pre determined and has to create entertainment value and try to be as fair as possible.
it gives all players relevant hands and oppertunities to win.
it in no way reflects the live arena , however can never be proved 1 way or another due to the fact that it is a game of luck and no matter what hand you are holding you always have a chance to win , even if your a 2% shot, so is un-provable , which is why no 1 will ever contest or regulate it properly.
Ok, so you have played over 2 million hands so you know whats what. You should then realise what I'm trying to say in the original post.
As for being 100% rigged why have/did you play so many hands online if you think that it's rigged? I mean this in the nicest possible way (whoever you are) but if that's the case then only an idiot would play so many hands online if they think it's rigged.
If I thought online was rigged in any way then there's no way I would have played so many games/hands online nevermind 2 million.
What you're saying doesn't make logical sense IMO.
As I just said,, I mean no offence when I say that,,just a figure of speech.
if you win then it doesn,t matter thats its rigged , right? , your still gonna play, its all about learning the software and the situations you find yourself in with certain hands ,c,mon dont tell me you don,t know what i mean.
i am not being funny or nothing just i fully 100% believe that the game is PRE-DETERMINED , wether that means its rigged or not i don,t know , but what i do know is i play upto $50 level , but would never ever play higher than this .that said my biggest buy in torny was $1000.
You can be the best player around m8 and murder your opposition in SnG,s for example but your roi will be 5%,10%15% or there abouts ,depending on your level played ,, why is it not like 40% or 50% or 60% coz the majority of players are donks right , well the software wont allow this to happen as it HAS TO BE SEEN TO BE FAIR TO ALL PLAYERS, so you now mention variance , well thats exactly why they will always get away with it, BECAUSE OF LUCK AND VARIANCE.
ask yourself this why is there not just 1 rng,, why is there different ones which the different sites use ?? surely they should always be the same right ? well no there not.
Yeah I get what you're saying.
I have doubts too mate. But if I thought it was rigged then I would never play online at any stakes.
I just still don't get why you have played so many games/hands online as youi say you have if you thin it is rigged.. That's like backing a horse if you know the jockey is going to pull it.
It's not me saying I'm right,,you're wrong or anything and agree with the RNG's being different etc, it's not a subject I like to talk about cos I'm a fan of the next card being the next card as it is in live play.
Another question though.
Are you of the opinion that the sites keep the bad players coming back by favouring them now and then? TBH I've thought this myself in the past but why would they do this? Why rig the game for one person over another? Especially at the lower stakes?
Interesting thoughts though mate.
PS: What makes you think that original post was written by a software manufacturer?
i think the software favours the worst hand far to often , a lot more %% wise than it should, but only in certain situations and certain circumstances , i.e when it knows action will deffo take place.wether this means it favours bad players or not, im not sure.
as for your post , i am pretty sure i have read that same post elsewhere?
also just coz i think the software is pre determined doesnt mean you can,t win, due to the fact certain skills can be used which gives you a very small edge over both the other players and the software, hence the small ROI,s which most people achieve , rather than big roi,s.
if it was down to the software every 1 would break even over time , apart from the complete maniacs obvously, ensuring constant play and 1 massive winner.
i certainly don,t thik it is rigged for any 1 person over another , i believe it is PRE DETERMINED to create action pre/post flop and create bigger pots and is predominately designed for CASH GAMES ,, which is where the sites make there billions.
the more people/money in the pot , the more they make.
just so you know - good casino/poker sites are regulated to prove the software ISN'T predetermined.
Look for eCOGRA.org or something
you may have read it on the newcastle poker forum cos I posted it up a month or so ago.
Quote:(i certainly don,t thik it is rigged for any 1 person over another , i believe it is PRE DETERMINED to create action pre/post flop and create bigger pots and is predominately designed for CASH GAMES ,, which is where the sites make there billions.
the more people/money in the pot , the more they make.) I assume you're talking about cash games?
Whether you or I are right or wrong about this isn't important anyway, the fact that we're getting feedback and opinions on the subject is. The purpose of the thread was to prokove opinions and replies so I thankyou for that Anonymous.
I still don't understand why you would play over 2 million hands online if you think this way though.
i never understand why people say,"if you think its rigged why do you play"..
The only reason i play online poker is to make money , its boring , lonely ,repeditive , annoying, obsessive,in fact there isn,t much good about it, other than you can make money?
why do you play online?
fair enough it fills a bit time in , but i wouldn,t play if i was consistantly losing or for that matter breaking even over a long period, as time could be better spent else where.
Just because something is "rigged" do you assume that you can,t beat it?? therefore you wouldn,t play.as this is obviously not the case as you have a third party,i.e. other players, so for example when the PRE DETERMINED software drops your flush on the river , the donkey who cant fold his staight still pays you off, hence profit can be made, simply from the mistakes of bad players.
as for regulation i think its very very basic and pretty much non existant, a bit of a token gesture authority.
quote: as for regulation i think its very very basic and pretty much non existant, a bit of a token gesture authority.
Cmon mate, you have your opinion but,, If you were the owner of a multi billion dollar business would you have just basic regulation? I say not. I'd pretect my investment or business with the best regulation and security money can buy. The UB scandal proves this, someone breached their security and were obviously too stupid to fly under the radar. The result of this? UB have lost billions of dollars and have had to merge with absolute poker just to survive. Even now he site still trails other big sites like stars and full tilt because of this. To say they have basic regulation is ignorant mate IMO.
WTF,, HE GOT CAUGHT PURELY AND 100% SIMPLY BECAUSE OF THE OTHER PLAYER HE WAS HEADS UP WITH, HAD NOTHING TO DO WITH REGULATION , THE SITE OR FK ALL ELSE,
IF THE GUY HADN,T BEEN A TOOL HE WOULD STILL BE GETTING AWAY WITH IT NOW.
HE ACTUALLY HAD AT LEAST 4 ACCOUNTS 2 OF WHICH WERE PLAYING THIS GAME HE GOT CAUGHT IN.
THE SITES HAVN,T GOT A CLUE WHATS GOING ON HALF THE TIME ,M8, NOR DO THEY CARE AS LONG AS THEY CAN COVER THEIR BACKS
OUTSIDE BODIES REGULATE POKER SITES AND THEY DON,T DO THAT MUCH OF AN INDEPTH OR SERIOUS JOB,
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